The African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected that Africa’s rice market will rise from $24 billion in 2024 to $29.2 billion by 2030, marking a compound annual growth rate of 4 per cent.
The projection was contained in the bank’s Commodity Bulletin Number 1 – 2025, which examined production, consumption, and import trends across the continent.
Despite steady growth in domestic output, Afreximbank noted that Africa still depends heavily on rice imports to meet its growing consumption needs driven by population expansion and urbanisation.
The report showed that the continent’s rice production increased from 36.9 million tonnes in 2018 to about 39.8 million tonnes in 2022. However, this improvement has not been sufficient to keep pace with demand.
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According to the bank, major challenges such as poor rural infrastructure, limited access to improved seeds and machinery, and the effects of climate change continue to constrain productivity and competitiveness.
Nigeria, Mali, and Guinea were identified as countries leading the effort to reduce import dependence through investments in irrigation, high-yield seed varieties, and better farming practices. In Nigeria, programmes such as the Anchor Borrowers’ Scheme and private investment in rice mills have boosted local supply but remain short of total demand.
Afreximbank noted that rice imports still account for about 40 per cent of Africa’s consumption, with the continent relying on exporters from India, Thailand, and Vietnam, exposing it to global price fluctuations.
The report added that Africa’s expanding urban population and preference for convenient foods will continue to drive rice demand. It also stated that trade integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could strengthen regional rice trade by cutting logistics costs and enhancing cooperation.
