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The Africa Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has raised concerns about the high risk of mpox spreading to neighboring countries and globally.
This warning was highlighted in an article published on its website on Wednesday.
According to the Africa CDC, several factors contribute to the difficulty in containing the spread of mpox. These include cross-border movements, low public awareness, high vulnerability due to issues like HIV and malnutrition, limited knowledge about mpox transmission, and inadequate response capacities, such as vaccine shortages.
On August 13, the Africa CDC declared mpox a public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) in Africa. This decision was made under its mandate to address significant public health threats, driven by the escalating mpox situation across the continent.
Since 2022, a total of 40,874 cases and 1,512 deaths have been reported across 15 African Union member states. In 2024 alone, 17,541 cases and 517 deaths have been recorded in 13 AU member states.
These numbers reflect a 160% increase in cases and a 19% increase in deaths in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Additionally, there was a 79% rise in cases from 2022 to 2023.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been particularly hard-hit, accounting for 96% of all cases and 97% of all deaths reported in 2024.
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Investigations in the DRC indicate that heterosexual transmission, particularly among female sex workers, is a significant factor in the outbreak, differing from the spread mainly among men who have sex with men in Europe in 2022.
The high prevalence among women has raised concerns about the risk of vertical transmission and adverse pregnancy outcomes.
The Africa CDC also pointed to other challenges complicating the outbreak, such as the high risk of severe infection among people living with HIV, the possibility of asymptomatic infections, poor vaccination strategies, limited access to medical countermeasures, and low detection rates.
The case fatality rate is particularly concerning, exceeding 3.9%, with children under 15 years old accounting for 60% of cases.
The day before the PHECS announcement, 15 of the 20-member Emergency Consultative Group met to advise Africa CDC Director General, Dr. Jean Kaseya, on whether the mpox outbreak constituted a PHECS.
The group redefined PHECS as a significant event posing a risk to other countries, requiring immediate continental-level action to prevent and mitigate disease spread. This expanded the original definition in the Africa CDC statute.
They also developed specific criteria to assess the situation objectively, organized into nine areas: disease severity, transmission dynamics, impact on health systems, vaccine and treatment availability, public health risk, economic and social impact, public concern, global health security, and political considerations.
The framework was created to ensure a transparent and consistent decision-making process for declaring a PHECS in Africa.
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