Tinubu’s Inauguration: The Critical issues facing Nigeria’s next president analysed

Bola Tinubu was named the victor of Nigeria’s hotly disputed presidential election on March 1. In a three-way race, Tinubu won with 37% of the votes, which was sufficient to secure his victory.

The election results for Bola Tinubu, a member of the same political party as outgoing president Muhammadu Buhari, are being contested in court by his opponents. However, if the outcomes are upheld, he will be inaugurated in May.

On what he would do within his first 100 days if elected, Tinubu said, during his campaigns, that he would hit the ground running by selecting a team of technocrats to help him run the country as he did when he was governor. He said he would prioritise national security, economy, agriculture, power, oil and gas, transportation, and education if elected in the 2023 general election.

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He also outlined policy options for healthcare, the digital economy, women empowerment, judicial reform, federalism/decentralisation of power, and foreign policy.

Here are some of the crucial issues Tinubu must redress in order to restore the economy:

FUEL SUBSIDY

On what to do with the issue of fuel subsidy, Tinubu said: “I believe we must remove petrol subsidy immediately. It has outlived its shelf life as a public good. We will neither subsidise neighbouring countries’ fuel consumption nor allow a select few to reap windfall profits and hoard products.”

And in line with the popular narrative, the President-elect had said, “And the subsidy money will not be ‘saved’ because that means elimination from the economy. Instead, we will redirect the funds into public infrastructure, transportation, affordable housing, education, and health, strengthening the social safety net for the poorest poor, thus averting increased security challenges.”

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund had repeatedly advised Nigeria to do away with the subsidy programme, which put pressure on revenue and heightened tension in the nation’s foreign exchange market.

Despite rising oil prices, the IMF said the government’s fiscal deficit is estimated to have widened further in 2022, mainly due to high fuel subsidy costs.

And according to the current Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed, the government needs to exit the fuel subsidy regime because it is a significant contributor to revenue loss.

REVENUE GENERATION

One of the central planks upon which the campaign of Tinubu rested was his impressive revenue credential which he earned when he was governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007.

He has continued to boast of growing Lagos’ internally generated revenue from “a paltry N600 million monthly, which has now grown to N51 billion.”

Revenue generation is a major constraint of the federal government, negatively impacting the country’s debt situation. Analysts believe the systemic resource mobilisation has been compounded by recent economic recessions, adding that the most viable solution to the country’s challenge remained to grow revenues and plug all leakages, as cutting expenditure was not a viable option.

HUGE DEBT PROFILE

Tinubu, who was quoted as saying that a deficit budget is not inherently wrong since, according to him, all modern economies run it, explained, “A budget deficit is not necessarily bad. Look at the Japanese example with high government borrowing and low inflation. The real issue is whether deficit spending is productive or not unproductive. Deficit spending is a compound negative, especially if backed by excessive foreign currency borrowing. This is not classroom economics, but it is the lesson of the real economic history of nations.”

However, his message is coming at a time when the country is steep in debt, as President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration cannot balance its revenue and expenditure. The government relies on borrowing to finance its budget to bridge the gap.

As explained by the Director-General of the Debt Management Office (DMO), Patience Oniha, Nigeria’s debt was already N77 trillion as of September 2022. The National Assembly refused to approve the planned securitisation of the CBN’s ways and means, “which would have added to the public debt,” she stated.

CRUDE THEFT

One of the dangers to the nation’s revenue generation is crude oil theft. The president-elect is not unmindful of the danger this poses to the nation’s economy. During his campaigns, Tinubu promised to ensure maximum technology deployment to curtail oil theft in the polity.

He also stated that his administration would have a zero-tolerance for corruption by strengthening anti-corruption agencies. He urged Organised Labour to support him in the 2023 presidential election based on his track record in public service.

Crude oil is the mainstay of the economy. Experts say that Nigeria loses about 600,000 barrels of crude oil daily to oil thieves. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) admits losses of 470,000 barrels daily. While this discrepancy exists, what is certain is that much of our crude oil is stolen daily.

NAIRA REDESIGN

At the height of the country’s current cash crisis, Tinubu claimed that the withdrawal policy was implemented to thwart his presidential ambition.

Tinubu, however, promised to deal with the challenge of multiple foreign exchanges (FX) rates if elected President.

As Tinubu engages challengers to his victory in court in days to come, one also expects him to brace up for the challenges ahead and his promise to turn the nation’s economy around.