Analysis: Will new notes scarcity reduce vote-buying?

One of the reasons provided by the CBN for its reluctance to extend the expiry date for old naira notes of N200, N500 and N1000) is that the extension will give room for vote-buying and undermine the forthcoming election. However, many people and groups, such as Journalists for Democratic Rights (JODER), a pro-media rights group and International Crisis Group, a non-governmental organisation, believe and have argued that it is unlikely that the policy will stop vote-buying, adding that the cash crunch would only enhance voter inducement.

According to the pro-media rights group, “the policy has made many people poorer. They have money that they cannot access. The consequence is that with voters brought to the lowest economic ebb, they will be more desperate for compensation to address immediate needs, having been stripped of livelihood by the cash crunch.”

READ ALSO: Report anyone trying to buy or sell votes – EFCC

Besides, these media groups are also concerned about how millions of Nigerians who registered outside their workplaces or homes will not be able to perform the historic ritual of electoral migration.

Over the years, vote-buying has become a menace to Nigeria’s democracy. Since the return of democracy to Nigeria in May 1999, vote buying has steadily grown in scale and brazenness. Several images and videos have emerged, showing unabashed sharing of cash, food and valuable items among the electorate by politicians and parties during elections in states like Edo, Anambra, Ondo and Ekiti. This has led to the succinct description of Nigeria’s electoral politics as “cash-and-carry democracy”.

Where will politicians get sufficient cash to go round?

The belief of most Nigerians and analysts is that the politicians are smart(er) people, and with the way this new notes scarcity has pushed many Nigerians into untold hardship and inflicted pain on millions of Nigerians, leaving several people stranded, the situation may likely enable vote-buying during 2023 elections. However, this may not be entirely true.

Currently, according to the release from CBN, the total amount of currency-in-circulation in the Nigerian economy has plummeted from N3.3tn to N1.54tn, leaving money in fewer hands, especially the politicians.

Although many people and analysts have argued that since politicians are smarter, they may employ (party) agents who will facilitate electronic transfers during election, and also adding that with the new notes scarcity, the voters are more likely to sell their votes for as low as #200. While this argument sounds plausible, it is highly unlikely that many Nigerians would want to sell their votes for as low as #200, #500, or even #1000 that cannot sustain them in the next 24 hours.

With the frustrating internet service in some rural areas, the probability of getting successful transfers to few banked individuals is extremely low. This will invariably stall vote-buying and enhance the integrity of the 2023 polls.

READ ALSO: Do our votes even count in Nigeria?

INEC’s move to discourage vote-buying

Over the years, INEC, too, has introduced introduced a number of measures, including the slight reconfiguration of the polling units to bring the ballot boxes closer to the voting cubicles to discourage the exposure of the marked ballot papers by voters to vote buyers.

“The commission is aware that legal provisions and the actions of the agencies are critical but will not be enough to completely root out the deep-seated cancer of corrupt money in our elections. The concerted actions of citizens are crucial. Citizens must reject inducements to sway their votes through vote buying,” the INEC Chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu said.