Euro 2024: Romania, Belgium, Slovakia, and Ukraine fight for Round of 16 survival in high-stakes Group E finale

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

As the Euro 2024 group stage nears its conclusion, the fate of group E participants Romania, Belgium, Slovakia, and Ukraine hangs in the balance.

Each team has the potential to advance to the round of 16, but their progress depends on the outcomes of today’s final matches. Below, we break down the scenarios for each team to advance or be eliminated.

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Romania:

• Advance (Top 2): Romania will secure a place in the top two and advance to the round of 16 if they avoid defeat (win or draw) against Slovakia.
• Eliminated: Romania will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose to Slovakia and Ukraine either wins or draws against Belgium.

Belgium:

• Advance (Top 2): Belgium will be through to the round of 16 in the top two if they avoid defeat (win or draw) against Ukraine.
• Eliminated: Belgium will not advance if they lose to Ukraine and Romania either wins or draws against Slovakia.

Slovakia:

• Advance (Top 2 or Best 3rd Place): Slovakia will advance if they avoid defeat (win or draw) against Romania. Even if they are not in the top two, they can still qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.
• Eliminated: Slovakia will be eliminated if they lose to Romania and Belgium either wins or draws against Ukraine.

Ukraine:

• Advance (Top 2): Ukraine will secure a top two spot and advance if they beat Belgium.
• Advance (Best 3rd Place): Ukraine can still advance as a best third-placed team if they draw with Belgium and the other game (Slovakia vs. Romania) is not a draw.
• Eliminated: Ukraine will be eliminated if they lose to Belgium and Slovakia either wins or draws against Romania, or if both games end in a draw.

If Both Games Are Drawn:

In a situation where both matches end in a draw, all four teams will finish with four points each. The following scenarios will determine the rankings:

• Scenario A: If both games have the same scoreline, or if the Belgium vs. Ukraine draw has fewer goals than the Slovakia vs. Romania draw:
  1. Romania will top the group.
  2. Belgium will be second.
  3. Slovakia will be third.
  4. Ukraine will be fourth.
• Scenario B: If the draws have different scorelines, for instance, Belgium vs. Ukraine ends 1-1 and Slovakia vs. Romania ends 0-0:
  • Belgium and Romania will occupy the top two positions but will be tied on goal difference and goals scored.
  • The head-to-head result between Belgium and Romania (Belgium won) will place Belgium first and Romania second.
  • Slovakia will be third, and Ukraine will be fourth based on goal difference.

Meanwhile, the scenarios outlined in articles 20.02, 20.01g, and 20.01h of the competition regulations (penalty kicks in case of perfect equality, disciplinary points, and European Qualifiers rankings) will not apply in these cases.

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