Nigeria’s democracy is no longer business as usual

The 2023 general election is one of the hotly contested elections in the annals of Nigeria’s democracy. Although people alleged that there was massive rigging in some places, yet the election is an affirmation that our votes count, or that democracy could and should move the country forward, because by the time the electoral body began to announce the results, it was clear that the people’s voice had been heard. 

Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was declared winner by INEC, had 8.8 million votes, just 1.8 million votes ahead of the Atiku Abubakar in second and 2.7 million votes more than Peter Obi. Unlike 2019 election where President Buhari won by nearly 4 million votes. It shows how powerful the masses are in disrupting the existing order, or their ability to change the status quo if they really mean business.

It seems that, for the first time, one’s expectations of election results are cut short: for example, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the winning candidate, even though he secured 8.8 million votes, could not win Lagos, President Muhammadu Buhari also failed to deliver his home state, Katsina for the presidential candidate of the ruling APC, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

In the same vein, Kaduna state governor, Nasir El-Rufai, could not deliver his state, and Dino Melaye also lost his state, Kogi to APC. This electoral outcome shows that this election, unlike previous elections in Nigeria, seems a free and fair one, or it seems to demonstrate that Nigeria’s democracy is now a step in the right direction.

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Furthermore, each of the top three candidates won twelve states, revealing how split voter preferences spread across Nigeria. One clear edge the APC candidate can boast of is that he secured at least 25% of the vote in 29 states, making him the most universally popular candidate. Meanwhile, although Peter Obi came within a million votes of Atiku Abubakar, he reached 25% of the poll in fewer states (16 vs 21), suggesting his popularity was slightly more concentrated, according to Stears.

Besides, unlike previous years where there were many violence and intimidation incidents, the violence rate has drastically reduced. Nigeria’s political history is replete with accounts of violent election conduct and behaviours by actors at election venues.  During previous election cycles, partisan violence has escalated along ethnic and sectarian lines, resulting in multiple rounds of revenge killings.

The magnitude of electoral unrest was recorded at its highest in 2011 when clashes between supporters of the then-ruling PDP and the Congress for Progressive Change – which later merged into the APC – claimed an estimated 800 lives following the election of President Goodluck Jonathan. Likewise, hundreds are reported to have died during the following elections in 2015 and 2019. However, the cases of political violence were very few in the recently concluded election.

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Vote-buying has also plummeted in a desirable way. Although this new trend might have been caused by the new notes scarcity, in other places, it seemed highly unlikely that some people would have voted for a particular candidate even if they were offered some money, and there appeared to be this concerted energy to root out oppressive, harsh government.

Lastly, although Obi lost this presidential election, his loss has, perhaps inadvertently, made many lawmakers from Labour Party emerge. We have now seen a re-emergence of three big political parties in Nigeria: APC, PDP, and LP. At the National Assembly, for instance, the ruling party will now have to battle two strong oppositions and there will be many interesting events unfolding in the coming years.

In a way, some fear has now been entrenched in the heart of some governors and even the president-elect. It is a fear that will nudge them to act responsibly, to serve the interests of the people, because they are beginning to see that if the Nigerian youths that voted vigorously during this 2023 election continue with this momentum, it will spell a devastating blow to their re-election in 2027 if they did not perform well in their first tenure.