Voice subscriptions dip as NIN-SIM linkage bites

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Nigeria’s telecommunications sector has witnessed a 2.4% decline in active voice subscriptions during the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This decrease coincides with the ongoing enforcement of the National Identification Number (NIN)-Subscriber Identity Module (SIM) NIN-SIM linkage policy by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) and telecom operators (telcos).

In year-to-year decline, the report highlighted, “The total number of active voice subscribers in Q1 2024 was 219,304,281, down from 226,161,713 reported in Q1 2023, indicating a growth rate of -3.03 per cent.”

The NBS report reveals a drop from 224,713,710 active voice subscriptions in Q4 2023 to 219,304,281 in Q1 2024. This translates to a loss of over 5.4 million subscriptions. The year-on-year decline is even steeper, with Q1 2024 recording a 3.03% decrease compared to Q1 2023.

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While a definitive causal link cannot be established solely based on this data, the timing of the subscription decline aligns with the stricter enforcement of the NIN-SIM linkage policy in recent months. This policy requires all mobile phone users to link their SIM cards to their NINs, a national identification number.

Possible Explanations:

Several explanations could be behind the subscription decline:

• Inactive SIM Card Deactivation: The policy might have prompted the deactivation of dormant or inactive SIM cards by telcos.
• Multiple SIM Ownership: Users with multiple SIM cards registered under the same NIN might have deactivated some to comply with the policy’s one-NIN-to-multiple-SIMs limit.
• Registration Challenges: Technical difficulties or bureaucratic hurdles during the NIN registration or SIM linkage process could have discouraged some users.

Uncertainties and Future Outlook:

The true impact of the NIN-SIM linkage on subscriptions remains to be seen. It’s possible that the decline is temporary, with subscriptions stabilizing after a period of adjustment. Additionally, factors beyond the NIN-SIM linkage, such as the general economic climate, might also be influencing consumer behavior.

The NCC has previously emphasized the policy’s importance for national security, aiming to curb criminal activities facilitated through anonymous SIM cards. The NCC might provide further insights into the reasons behind the subscription decline and any potential adjustments to the policy in the future.

Tags: NCC, SIM, SIM-NIN Linkage, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, National Identification Number, Nigerian Communications Commission, telecommunications, voice subscriptions