CAF has confirmed the official criteria for ranking Africa’s second-placed teams in 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying, excluding results against bottom-ranked sides to ensure fairness across uneven groups.
The clarification, published on October 12, references FIFA’s tie-breaking regulations and settles confusion surrounding how the four best runners-up will reach the inter-confederation playoffs.
Africa’s qualification structure now grants nine direct World Cup berths and one playoff slot. Each of CAF’s nine groups produces a winner who qualifies automatically, while second-placed teams compete through adjusted rankings.
CAF’s fairness rule removes results against each group’s last-placed team when comparing runners-up. The exception is Group E, where Eritrea’s withdrawal left only five teams, so that all results will count.
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This approach aligns with FIFA’s official Preliminary Competition Regulations. It ensures parity, as some groups feature stronger or fewer teams due to logistical withdrawals or sanctions.
After exclusions, runners-up are ranked by points, goal difference, goals scored, and head-to-head performance. If still tied, away goals, fair play points, and ultimately a draw determine placement.
A tight race for playoffs
Current standings show Gabon leading the provisional runners-up table with 22 points and a +11 goal difference. Burkina Faso follows closely with 21 points from 10 matches.
Cameroon and DR Congo remain contenders, while South Africa, Namibia, and Niger linger near the threshold, where minor goal swings could alter their playoff chances.
Nigeria, sitting third in Group C with 14 points, faces a must-win match against Benin on October 14. A victory could elevate them into second place, reviving their playoff hopes.
CAF officials reaffirmed that the adjusted tables will only be finalized once all qualifiers have concluded. Any temporary discrepancies circulating online remain unofficial until then.
Context behind CAF’s format change
The system emerged after FIFA expanded the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams, increasing Africa’s allocation from five to nine direct qualifiers. The reform, approved in May 2023, aimed to reward consistency and competitiveness.
Each African nation plays 10 group matches in a home-and-away format. Group winners qualify directly, while runners-up battle for four inter-confederation playoff spots scheduled for March 2026.
The playoffs will feature six teams—four from Africa, one from South America, and one from Asia or Oceania—competing for two remaining global berths.
CAF’s adjustment to exclude results against last-placed teams reflects lessons from earlier tournaments, where weaker groups distorted rankings. Many have described the new model as transparent and merit-based.
Wider implications for African football
This qualification cycle could produce new World Cup debutants alongside traditional powers. Niger, Namibia, and Madagascar have all exceeded expectations in their respective groups.
The latest clarification has been welcomed by coaches and analysts, though fans continue to debate whether Group E’s five-team format gives Niger an unintended advantage.
