Dark Clouds Over Nigerian Harvest: World Bank Paints Bleak Picture of Food Security

A chilling forecast from the World Bank predicts persistent insecurity, armed conflict, and worsening livelihoods will continue to tighten their grip on several Nigerian states through May 2024. Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara, and the northern tip of Adamawa will bear the brunt of this prolonged instability, jeopardizing food security for millions.

Beyond insecurity, crippling macroeconomic conditions are throwing another wrench into the agricultural engine. Access to fertilizers and other crucial inputs is becoming increasingly restricted, directly impacting cereal production across the country. The World Bank’s latest Food Security Update paints a concerning picture of a potential decline in the 2023/24 harvest.

The statement reads, “Projections indicate a decline in production from last year in Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. This decrease is attributed to dry spells during the growing season and insecurity that limited access to cropland in Chad, Mali, and Niger and to poor macroeconomic conditions that have restricted access to agricultural inputs in Nigeria.

“Over the same period (November to May 2024), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions, mainly caused by persistent insecurity and armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods, are projected to affect the following regions:

“Nigeria: Local government areas in Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the far north of Adamawa state.”

While West and Central Africa as a whole might see a marginal 2% decrease in cereal production compared to the previous season, this doesn’t tell the full story for Nigeria.

In its latest update, the World Bank noted that between August and November, many low- and middle-income countries were battling with high inflation.

It stated, “Information from the latest month between August and November 2023 for which food price inflation data are available shows high inflation in many low- and middle-income countries, with inflation higher than 5 per cent in 61.9 per cent of low-income countries (no change since the last update two weeks ago), 76.1 per cent of lower-middle-income countries (3.9-percentage-point decrease), 50.0 per cent of upper-middle-income countries (no change), and 57.4 per cent of high-income countries (2.6-percentage point decrease).”

The report reveals a deeper worry: this projected harvest, estimated at 76.5 million tons, would still fall short of the average production for the past five years, indicating a worrying downward trend.

For Nigerians grappling with ongoing conflict and economic hardship, this translates to a heightened risk of food insecurity. Already struggling households in the identified states, particularly those in rural areas, face the prospect of even more limited access to food, pushing them further into vulnerability.

The World Bank’s report serves as a stark reminder of the complex challenges confronting Nigeria’s food security. Beyond immediate relief efforts, addressing the root causes of insecurity and bolstering agricultural support systems are crucial for building long-term resilience and ensuring a stable food supply for the nation.