Technology change is slower than we think

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

We often hear about how technology is changing the world at an unprecedented pace. We see new gadgets, apps, and innovations every day, and we assume that they are transforming our lives and society in profound ways. But is this really true? How fast is technology change, and how does it compare to other historical periods of change?

In this News Round the Clock (NRTC) post, I will argue that technology change is actually slower than we think, and that we tend to overestimate its impact and novelty.

I will also make references to some sources that support this claim, and suggest some implications for our future.

One way to measure technology change is to look at the rate of invention and adoption of new technologies.

According to some studies, the rate of invention peaked in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, when many breakthroughs such as electricity, automobiles, airplanes, radio, and telephone were made. Since then, the rate of invention has slowed down, and most of the technologies we use today are based on those earlier inventions.

For example, the internet is essentially a network of computers and cables that use electricity and radio waves to communicate.

Another way to measure technology change is to look at the economic and social effects of new technologies. According to some economists, the most transformative technologies are those that increase productivity and living standards for large segments of the population.

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By this criterion, the most impactful technologies were those that enabled the Industrial Revolution, such as steam engines, railways, factories, and mechanized agriculture. These tech increased output per worker by several times, and created new industries and markets.

In contrast, most of the technologies we use today have not had such dramatic effects on productivity and living standards. For example, smartphones and social media may make our lives more convenient and connected, but they do not significantly increase our output or income.

Of course, this does not mean that technology change is irrelevant or insignificant. Technology still plays a vital role in shaping our culture, politics, environment, and health. Technology also creates new opportunities and challenges for individuals and societies.

However, we should be careful not to exaggerate the speed and novelty of technology change, and to recognize that many of the changes we experience are not caused by technology alone, but by other factors such as demographics, institutions, values, and choices.

To conclude, tech change is slower than we think, and we should be more realistic and nuanced in assessing its impact and implications. If you are interested in learning more about this topic, I recommend reading these books:

– The Rise and Fall of American Growth by Robert J. Gordon
– The Shock of the Old by David Edgerton
– The Myth of the Framework by Karl Popper