The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected the country’s public debt-to-GDP ratio at 34.68 per cent by the end of 2026.
The forecast appears in the CBN’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria.
This marks a slight rise from 33.98 per cent recorded at end-June 2025.
The increase stems from anticipated new borrowings under ongoing discretionary fiscal policies.
The CBN affirmed that the debt trajectory remains sustainable.
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Exchange rate-related valuation effects, dominant in debt growth from 2023 to 2025, are expected to weaken significantly in 2026.
Improved naira stability will reduce revaluation impacts on foreign-denominated debt.
Debt accumulation will shift toward traditional drivers like primary balance.
Tax reforms under the 2025 Tax Act and real economic growth should support revenue gains.
This outlook signals reduced vulnerability to external shocks, enhancing medium-term debt sustainability through stronger fiscal fundamentals in Nigeria.
