Geopolitical analysts warn the G20 may face fragmentation as G20 potential split tension deepen between the United States and South Africa following Washington’s unprecedented diplomatic decisions.
The concerns heightened after the United States excluded South Africa from the 2026 summit and extended an invitation to Poland instead, signalling a sharp escalation in G20 tensions driven by shifting geopolitical alliances.
Relations between Washington and Pretoria deteriorated this year after U.S. President Donald Trump accused South Africa of committing “genocide against White Afrikaners,” a claim President Cyril Ramaphosa rejected during a White House visit, further fueling G20 tensions.
The United States boycotted the 2025 G20 Summit in Pretoria—the first ever held on African soil—marking a historic diplomatic snub that analysts link directly to escalating G20 tensions.
Pretoria said it is ready to sit out the entire 2026 summit cycle and made clear that it does not expect third-party intervention, underscoring how G20 tensions are now reshaping participation dynamics.
On Nairametrics’ Drinks & Mic podcast, Cheta Nwanze, CEO of SBM Intelligence, said the G20’s traditional cohesion has collapsed, arguing that G20 tensions are pushing member states into emerging rival blocs.
Nwanze said the global system is drifting toward an “emerging West versus the rest” environment in which historically non-aligned countries face growing pressure to take sides as G20 tensions intensify.
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He expressed disappointment that the first African-hosted summit produced weak outcomes, warning that the lack of progress will deepen questions about the G20’s relevance amid rising G20 tensions.
Nwanze said global inconsistencies highlighted by the Russia–Ukraine war and the Israel–Palestine conflict show a world reverting to unilateralism, a shift he said is worsened by G20 tensions that now influence perceptions of global governance.
Arnold Dublin-Green, Chief Investment Officer at Cordros Securities, said Western silence over the U.S. boycott of the Pretoria summit demonstrates a widening divide, arguing that G20 tensions now reflect a broader West-versus-BRICS realignment.
He said the exclusion of South Africa may eventually be viewed as a turning point, suggesting historians could mark this moment as the period when G20 tensions reached a decisive and irreversible phase.
The G20, which includes major global economies alongside the European Union and African Union, represents 85 percent of global GDP, yet its unity is increasingly affected by G20 tensions and geopolitical rivalries.
The Trump administration has maintained a hardline stance on South Africa, including expelling its ambassador and imposing 30 percent tariffs, actions analysts say have heightened G20 tensions across international economic diplomacy.
