The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has projected that Nigeria’s working-age population will surge to 168 million by 2030, warning that the nation faces a potential employment crisis unless it pursues deep structural reforms.
The projection was revealed on Monday in Abuja during the launch of a landmark report at the ongoing 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES#31), titled From Hustle to Decent Work: Unlocking Jobs and Productivity for Economic Transformation in Nigeria.
According to the report, Nigeria must create at least 27 million formal jobs in five years — an average of 4.5 million annually — to prevent rising unemployment and widespread underemployment. Over 90 percent of the workforce currently operates in the informal sector, with 80 percent engaged in low-productivity activities.
“This is not just a labour market issue; it is a huge development challenge,” said Wilson Erumebor, Senior Economist at the NESG.
“Without decisive reforms to create decent and productive jobs, an entire generation risks being trapped in vulnerable work that neither lifts families out of poverty nor moves the nation forward.”
ALSO READ: Your salary is not the bribe they pay you to forget your dreams
The NESG identified five major obstacles to job creation: a shallow private sector base, poor skills alignment, weak educational outcomes, growth concentrated in low-employment sectors, and severe infrastructure gaps in power and logistics.
To address these constraints, the Group introduced the Nigeria Works Framework — a six-pillar strategy focused on investing in skills, boosting key sectors such as manufacturing and ICT, supporting enterprise-led growth, formalising informal work, strengthening institutions, and adopting productivity as a national metric.
“The challenge before us is to move decisively into the consolidation phase, embedding reforms that drive jobs, growth, and inclusion while laying the foundations for long-term transformation,” said Niyi Yusuf, Chairman of the NESG.
The report also highlighted four sectors — manufacturing, construction, ICT, and professional services — as critical drivers for large-scale job creation and productivity expansion in the coming decade.
