Nigeria’s 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign has reached a precarious stage, with playoff chances below 10% after a costly draw against South Africa on September 9.
A narrow path forward
Nigeria can still reach the CAF playoff, but the conditions are severe. The Super Eagles must defeat both Benin and Rwanda to finish with 17 points. At the same time, multiple rivals across Africa must drop points.
Gabon have already secured one playoff spot with 19 points, while Madagascar and DR Congo sit on 16 each, needing only a draw to surpass Nigeria.
Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Namibia, and Uganda—each with 15 points—require one win to all but shut the door on Nigeria’s pursuit.
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The September window proved decisive. Nigeria’s 1-1 draw with South Africa effectively ended hopes of direct qualification, as the Bafana Bafana extended their Group C lead to six points.
On the same day, Benin edged Lesotho 4-0, keeping Group C alive but leaving Nigeria adrift in the runners-up standings. Meanwhile, Cape Verde’s 1-0 victory over Cameroon left the Indomitable Lions on 15 points, giving Nigeria a slim lifeline should Cameroon falter.
Historical context and pressure
The 2026 World Cup is Africa’s largest qualifying contest yet, with nine direct spots for group winners and one more via intercontinental playoffs. Four best runners-up advance to CAF playoffs in October-November 2025.
Nigeria’s history amplifies the stakes. The Super Eagles, with six prior appearances and three round-of-16 finishes, missed the 2022 tournament after losing a playoff to Ghana. Another failure would mark consecutive absences, unprecedented for a nation ranked among Africa’s elite.
Early mistakes and coaching problem
Nigeria’s troubles began in November 2023 with surprise 1-1 draws against Lesotho and Zimbabwe. Inconsistent form followed, including a 2-1 defeat to Benin in June 2024.
Coaching changes compounded the decline. Finidi George resigned in June 2024, and interim boss Augustine Eguavoen oversaw a September window that mixed a 3-0 win over Benin with the damaging stalemate against South Africa.
Odds against the Super Eagles
The runners-up table previews Nigeria’s plight. Cameroon and Burkina Faso boast superior goal differences of +10 and +12, compared with Nigeria’s modest +2.
Even if the Super Eagles secure six points in October, qualification requires collapses by multiple teams—an outcome rarely seen across CAF qualifying matches.
If Nigeria miss the 2026 tournament, it will confirm a painful decline. For a team long considered one of Africa’s footballing giants, the possibility of back-to-back absences would mark a generational low.
