Arsenal sit four points clear at the top of the Premier League table with 12 games remaining. They have lost only three times all season. Yet the word “bottle” hangs over north London like autumn fog.
Mikel Arteta’s side has finished second for three consecutive seasons. Twice, they have watched Manchester City go past them in the run-in. The trauma of those near-misses does not simply disappear because this year’s lead is real.
Here is how Arsenal could still turn certain glory into another chapter of heartbreak…
The haunted history
Past performance is not always a predictor. But sometimes it is a warning. In the last five seasons, Arsenal have won 10 of their final 12 league matches only once. More damning still: they have never accumulated more points in the closing stages than the team that eventually lifted the trophy.
The weight of that history presses down with each passing week. When the Brentford equaliser went in on Thursday night, the away end fell silent. They have seen this film before.
Manchester City, by contrast, has made late run-in an art form. Pep Guardiola’s side specialises in applying pressure until opponents crack. The gap is four points. In City maths, that is nothing.
Havertz problem
Kai Havertz sits in the treatment room. His muscle injury, sustained just after returning from a long-term knee issue, could not have come at a worse moment.
Havertz’s absence leaves Arsenal blunt. Viktor Gyokeres started at Brentford and delivered a performance best described as agricultural. Forty-seven percent pass completion. Twenty-nine touches, the fewest of any starter. He was marshalled with ease by Sepp van den Berg.
Havertz brings in movement, pressing intelligence, and the ability to ghost into boxes. Without him, Arsenal’s attack loses its subtlety. Mikel Merino is also sidelined after foot surgery, leaving Arteta short of options in the final third.
Saliba factor
William Saliba missed the Brentford trip due to illness. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Arsenal has won 68.6 per cent of its league games with the French centre-back. They average 2.3 points per match.
Without him, those numbers plummet. The win rate drops to 42.1 per cent. Points per game fall to 1.6.
Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes have conceded just 18 goals all season, the best defensive record in the division. If Saliba picks up a longer lay-off between now and May, the foundation crumbles.
ALSO READ:
- Premier League: Arsenal’s Ramsdale wins save of the month
- Arsenal win Community Shield after penalty shootout victory over Manchester City
- Arsenal secure Bukayo Saka’s future as England star commits to new long-term deal
- Has Arsenal bottled the Premier League title?
Performance dip
Results have flattered Arsenal for weeks. Jamie O’Hara did not hold back after the Brentford draw. Jason Cundy agreed Brentford were the better side. “They outplayed Arsenal tonight. They kind of bullied Arsenal, and you don’t ever see Arsenal get bullied”.
Statistics back the eye test. Arsenal have dropped points in four of their seven league games in 2026. Each time they have had chances to seize the life from the title race, they have brought City hope instead.
Set-piece reliance
They lead the Premier League with 15 set-piece goals this season. More than 30 per cent of their total goals come from dead-ball situations. Rival fans chant “set-piece again, ole, ole” in mockery. Arsenal supporters sing it back defiantly.
At Brentford, the defiance stopped. The Gunners managed just four corners all night. Worse, they were undone by the very weapon they pride themselves on. Michael Kayode’s long throw caused chaos. Sepp van den Berg flicked on. Keane Lewis-Potter scored at the back post.
It was Brentford’s 13th goal from long throws since October 2022. No team has more. The set-piece kings were dethroned by their own game.
Manchester City factor
Pep Guardiola’s side have been far from their best this season. They have won only one of their last five league games at various points. Peter Crouch said plainly: “Man City are not the Man City of old”.
Yet here they are, four points back, breathing down Arsenal’s necks. City has the know-how. They have the history. They have the manager who has turned late charges into an art form.
By contrast, Arsenal have the nerves. Declan Rice called the season a rollercoaster. He urged his teammates to block out the outside noise. The very fact that he needed to say it revealed the tension.
Fixture list
There is still an away trip to Manchester City. Lose that, and the gap shrinks to one point with momentum entirely with Guardiola’s side.
Gunners also must navigate the psychological blow of playing after City. Arteta insists his team has done so successfully this season. But run-in pressure distorts everything. Games after City feel different when the gap is tight, and the title is on the line.
The opportunity cost
Here is the paradox. This may be Arsenal’s best chance for years. Liverpool is not the force it was. Manchester United remain in transition. Chelsea is rebuilding. The traditional powers have lowered the bar.
“If they don’t get over the line, there needs to be more questions answered,” Crouch said. The questions would be brutal. How many chances does one group need? How many times can you blame City’s resources? When does near-success become evidence of a deeper flaw?
The verdict
Four points clear. Twelve games remaining. The title is in their own hands.
Yet the doubts linger because experience teaches they should. Arsenal have been here before. They have felt the ground shift beneath them. They have watched City celebrate while they collect runners-up medals.
We all know the bottle narrative is not fair. It ignores progress, injuries, and the quality of a genuine title challenge. But football does not deal in fairness. It deals in outcomes.
They have 12 games to change the story. The alternative does not bear thinking about at the Emirates. But everyone is thinking about it anyway.
