Global oil prices remained steady on Monday, January 26, 2026, holding above Nigeria’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, as ongoing supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support the market, according to market reports tracking Brent and U.S. crude futures.
Brent crude futures dipped by 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $65.81 per barrel as of 02:21 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude eased by 6 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $61.01 per barrel.
The small pullback followed a strong rally in the previous trading session, where prices surged over 2 per cent, with both benchmarks posting weekly gains of approximately 2.7 per cent on Friday, closing at their highest levels since mid-January.
JPMorgan reported that harsh weather conditions have cut around 250,000 barrels per day of U.S. crude output, affecting production in the Bakken shale, Oklahoma, and Texas.
The arrival of a U.S. military aircraft carrier strike group in the Middle East has raised fears of disruptions to key oil supply routes.
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An Iranian official’s warning that any attack on Iranian territory would be considered “an all-out war” added to market unease.
These factors collectively add a risk premium to oil prices, underpinning recent gains despite minor pullbacks.
Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy relies heavily on stable crude prices to fund its budget and manage foreign exchange earnings.
The 2026 budget was set with an oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel and a production target of 2.6 million barrels per day.
These assumptions are critical for revenue projections and fiscal sustainability.
Last week, prices briefly fell below the benchmark, raising concerns among policymakers and analysts about potential revenue shortfalls.
Historically, Nigeria’s oil sector has faced challenges such as pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and production inefficiencies, which often undermine its ability to meet targets even when prices are favourable.
The current price stability above the benchmark offers a buffer but does not eliminate underlying risks to Nigeria’s fiscal outlook.
