Global oil supply could fall by up to seven million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, the steepest quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Bank has warned.
The projection is contained in the bank’s Commodity Market Outlook for April 2026, released on Thursday.
“In 2026Q2 alone, supply is projected to drop by almost 7 million barrels per day (6.6 per cent, year-on-year), to 98.4 million barrels per day, the biggest quarterly fall since the COVID-19 pandemic,” the World Bank stated.
The report forecasts that global oil supply will decline by 1.5 million barrels per day, or 1.4 per cent, over the full year.
For the second quarter, the oil market is expected to record a deficit of roughly 3.7 million barrels per day, the largest on record, according to the International Energy Agency.
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Production among the OPEC+ group is forecast to decline by nearly five per cent in 2026.
Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for a large share of global oil and gas flows, are cited as a major factor behind the supply squeeze.
Non-OPEC producers, especially the United States, are expected to partially offset the losses by increasing output by about 500,000 barrels per day.
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OPEC production dropped by 27.5 per cent to 20.79 million barrels per day in March 2026, one of the steepest declines in decades.
Nigeria’s crude production recovered to 1.84 million barrels per day in March, though the country continues to face challenges such as oil theft and infrastructure constraints.
The Federal Government adopted a 2.6 million barrels per day oil production benchmark for 2026, but is using a more conservative 1.8 million barrels per day for budget planning.
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