Global trade expanded in 2025 as manufacturing output surged 11 per cent, though commodity price swings and geopolitical pressures are expected to slow momentum this year, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has reported.
Industrial goods, particularly machinery, became the primary driver of the expansion, while trade in natural resources fell due to weaker energy prices.
“Manufacturing recorded a strong year, expanding by around 11 per cent, driven by robust growth in machinery,” UNCTAD stated in its Global Trade Update.
Agricultural trade also rose, supported by cereals, animal products, coffee, tea and spices, while precious metals helped cushion declines in broader resource trade.
Global trade rose roughly two per cent quarter-on-quarter, with goods up 1.7 per cent and services about three per cent, according to the report.
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UNCTAD said trade growth is expected to slow considerably in 2026, weighed by geopolitical uncertainties, persistent inflation and higher trade costs.
Nigeria’s trade figures diverged sharply from the global trend, with manufactured goods exports falling to N423.43 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
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This represents a 14.32 per cent year-on-year drop and a 56.73 per cent plunge from the previous quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
Total merchandise trade stood at N36.21 trillion, down from N39.77 trillion in the third quarter of 2025.
The trade surplus narrowed to N1.71 trillion from N6.691 trillion over the same period, driven largely by reduced crude oil export volumes.
The contrast between global manufacturing growth and Nigeria’s export decline highlights the country’s continued reliance on crude oil for external earnings.
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