Nigeria’s headline inflation is projected to rise to 16.42% year-on-year in April 2026, reversing a sustained disinflation trend that had brought annual price growth down from a peak of 27.35% in March 2025 to 15.06% in February 2026, according to a forecast by the Financial Market Dealers Association.
The FMDA’s April 2026 Inflation Forecast report, released on Wednesday and drawing on data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the World Bank, and the Food and Agriculture Organisation, attributes the projected acceleration to higher energy costs, rising food prices, and elevated global commodity prices.
On a month-on-month basis, FMDA projects headline inflation at 2.78% in April, moderating from 4.18% in March. The annual figure of 16.42% would represent the first back-to-back monthly acceleration in year-on-year inflation since mid-2025, following a reading of 15.38% in March.
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Average petrol prices rose to N1,322.50 per litre in April from N1,208.38 in March, a 9.44% increase. The domestic food price index also climbed, driven by price increases across major staples, with yam recording the sharpest rise. Watermelon, maize, millet, and sorghum posted moderate increases during the period.
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Global commodity conditions tightened considerably in April. Brent crude surged to $120.4 per barrel from $103.7 in March, linked to renewed Middle East tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. The FAO Food Price Index rose for the third consecutive month, while the World Bank Energy Index climbed to 146.4 points from 130.6.
The naira appreciated marginally to an average of N1,361.22 per dollar in April from N1,379.98 in March, which the FMDA said may partially offset the inflationary impact of higher import costs.
Rice was the only major staple to ease, declining 0.13% during the month, offering limited relief to consumers facing broad-based food cost pressures.
The April projection adds pressure on the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee ahead of its next meeting, as external cost-push factors threaten to slow the disinflation gains achieved through aggressive interest rate tightening over the past year.
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