Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell to 15.10 per cent in January 2026, a slight decline from the 15.15 per cent recorded in December 2025.
The marginal drop of 0.05 percentage points, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), signals a continued moderation in the rising cost of living at the start of the year.
Compared to the same month last year, the figure represents a significant easing of price pressures. The January 2026 rate is 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61 per cent reported in January 2025.
Prices contracted sharply on a month-on-month basis, standing at -2.88 per cent in January, a steep decline from the 0.54 increase recorded in December. The NBS stated that this indicates the average price level for goods and services fell during the month. Despite this recent easing, the twelve-month average inflation rate ending January 2026 was 21.97 per cent, higher than the 17.59 per cent recorded over the previous period.
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The primary driver of the decline was a sharp drop in food inflation, which eased to 8.89 per cent on a year-on-year basis. This is a considerable fall from the 29.63 per cent recorded in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell by 6.02 per cent, compared to a 0.36 per cent decline in December. The NBS attributed this moderation to lower average prices for staples such as water yam, eggs, palm oil, beans, and beef. The twelve-month average food inflation rate also fell significantly to 20.29 per cent.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile farm produce and energy prices, also softened. It stood at 17.72 per cent year-on-year in January, down from 25.27 per cent a year earlier. Month-on-month, core inflation declined to -1.69 per cent, contrasting with the 0.58 per cent rise in December 2025.
In urban areas, year-on-year inflation was 15.36 per cent, while rural areas recorded 14.44 per cent, both showing considerable drops from their respective rates in January 2025. Month-on-month figures for both urban and rural areas were negative, indicating broad-based price declines across the country.
The January figures defied projections from analysts, who had anticipated a flat or slightly higher rate within a 15.15 per cent to 16.25 per cent range. Their forecasts weighed potential post-holiday food price relief against persistent pressures from fuel costs and import-linked goods.
As the first inflation data for the year, January’s outcome provides a crucial early indicator for the Central Bank of Nigeria’s monetary policy decisions in the coming months, even as supply-side dynamics and liquidity conditions continue to evolve.
